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Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season
August Week 3 AoI: Another Day, Another (African) Wave Excuse the length of the title, but it does appear another wave is ready to come off of the coast, and not only that, but a few models develop an Invest-equivalent low, with practically all of them putting something in the Central Atlantic. I'm not exactly sure if this is really that big, but the convection on land does look promising. 68-100-190-56 13:36, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :I don't see anything of interest out there, but if there is a low with any convection with it and the conditions are as good a NHC is saying they are for Dean, then I could see something forming. -- SkyFury 15:22, 15 August 2007 (UTC) ::This might just be a problem with the models, but I'm not sure (every single one develops it into at least a low, not necessarily closed off, but a low), since it would be quite a coincidence. I would, however, suspect than anything there would have somewhat of a chance of forming. 68-100-190-56 15:29, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :::GFS turns it into a hurricane after Dean's second landfall. Link. 68-100-190-56 11:31, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Doesn't seem too likely, it develops it at a record low latitude. Cyclone1(14:45 UTC -16/08/2007) It doesn't, does it? But other models develop it higher. I'm not sure the low would track that far south anyway. It certainly is possible though. 68-100-190-56 16:00, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :CMC runs it into Georgia/Carolinas as a hurricane, developing much higher. Still can't figure out what it's developing though. 68-100-190-56 17:21, 16 August 2007 (UTC) I'm going to make a few enters here so that the next post will stand out, ok? That's better Anyway, the wave is now looking pretty nice, with the low still mostly separate. It's been looking good for a while now, but I haven't been paying attention. CMC predicts a cyclone from the low and the wave, but the wave shows now signs of development besides impressive convection, so I'm not sure what kind of drugs it's on this time. 68-100-190-56 21:23, 17 August 2007 (UTC) ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE E ATLC ALONG 32W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BROAD ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE SURROUNDING LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD...ESPECIALLY FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 28W-37W. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL NEAR THIS CIRCULATION WITH ONLY ONE SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED NEAR 16N32W. A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SRN PORTION OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 24W-34W...WHICH MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE S OF THE ITCZ. They're wrong about the convection thing, by the way. IP 01:05, 18 August 2007 (UTC) :Mention in the TWO. Looks like nothing. Cyclone1(21:02 UTC -19/08/2007) ::THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW NEAR BARBADOS APPEARS UNLIKELY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY...HOWEVER...A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. Hmm.. latest TWO is more interesing. Cyclone1(21:35 UTC -19/08/2007) :::Hmm. That's slightly disconcerting. If that countinues, it will probably be more the lack of information than any bad news. It could develop, it could be nothing. There's just no way to know. We just have to wait and see. -- SkyFury 22:14, 19 August 2007 (UTC) 92L.INVEST That blob of thunderstorms east of the Bahamas. Anyway, shear is becoming lower, so it does have some potential to develop. No surface low right now, but one could potentially form later this week. Cainer91 14:27, 20 August 2007 (UTC) :50% bet that Felix would could out from this blob... RoswellAtup 15:02, 20 August 2007 (UTC) ::Good chance of Felix, but also probably a fishspinner. 69.86.16.159 17:24, 20 August 2007 (UTC) :::TCFA issued. 10 bucks says we get Felix outta this. Cyclone1(18:14 UTC -20/08/2007) :::Please let it head for the Carolinas. We need rain badly. 4.152.3.6 20:16, 20 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Don't get too excited, there's not even a low pressure center around this thing and Lord knows we don't need a hurricane down here, just a rainstorm to cool us off. -- SkyFury 20:21, 20 August 2007 (UTC) :::::There most certainly is a low pressure, albeit broad. It's forecast to head NW, then W, then SW, then into Florida. SHIPS takes it to 70kts. Cyclone1(20:40 UTC -20/08/2007) ::::::It also has an anticyclone over it. Conditions are perfect. Cyclone1(20:46 UTC -20/08/2007) :::NHC's surface analysis says no low exists. -- SkyFury 21:03, 20 August 2007 (UTC) ::::That analysis is nearly 12 hours old. Cyclone1(21:33 UTC -20/08/2007) I think we're splitting hairs here. The point is it's not much and I have heard nothing from NHC saying there's a low pressure. It could develop, but it will be at least this weekend before that happens, it's just too disorganized to get anywhere fast. -- SkyFury 21:51, 20 August 2007 (UTC) :Danger area. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/203526.shtml?basin#contents Cyclone1(22:44 UTC -20/08/2007) ::Yep, we may have Felix on our hands soon. - Enzo Aquarius 23:11, 20 August 2007 (UTC) :::I still don't think we'll have anything to worry about until at least Friday. -- SkyFury 23:32, 20 August 2007 (UTC) Worsening conditions. No more danger area. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:25, 21 August 2007 (UTC) Gone. Cyclone1(20:25 UTC -21/08/2007) :You were saying something about a Felix? -- SkyFury 21:05, 22 August 2007 (UTC) ::Uh.. err... well you see... uh.. Oh, shut up! "Informal Betting for Strongest 2005 storm name: Lee- HurricaneEric" Hah! Cyclone1(02:03 UTC -23/08/2007) :::Cute. I made that bet over two years ago, Cyclone1. -- SkyFury 22:24, 23 August 2007 (UTC) ::::I was just making a joke, dude. I know there's know way you could have predicted the strength of Lee before the season started. And several models were calling for the development of a storm from 92L at the time, so you can understand my prediction. Cyclone1(00:55 UTC -24/08/2007) :::::Suuure you were...;) -- SkyFury 17:04, 25 August 2007 (UTC) Week 4 AoI: Extratropical cyclone west of Azores You guys gotta see thins thing! http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e244/zdtadmin/GOES15452007237xFin2R.jpg It looks like a the beginning of several extratropical-origin hurricanes I've seen. (Noel, Perfect Storm, Vince, Epsilon etc.) No mention from the NHC, but this cyclone should be remembered! Cyclone1(17:38 UTC -25/08/2007) :It has a low-level rotation to it. I emailed the NHC asking what they thought about it (since it's not even in the TWD). I'll post the response if I receive one. Cyclone1(18:01 UTC -25/08/2007) ::It wasn't mentioned in the TWD because, well, it's not tropical. And, the water it's over is only 20-22 degrees. Even Epsilon had warmer temperatures than that. If it does become a freak of nature and make the transition, I will eat my words, but as of right now, I can't see anything (sub)tropical coming from this. Cainer91 20:33, 25 August 2007 (UTC) :::It's just a frontal system. Most occluded lows have LLCs.--Coredesat 00:41, 26 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Yeah, I spotted that one about two days ago. It's certainly an extratropical system, but a very impressive one. -- SkyFury 00:39, 27 August 2007 (UTC) It's impressive signature has fallen apart. Dead. I would post an image of it this morning, but I can't seem to access GIBBS. When I click on a time, all I get is a link saying "Satellite Image." Oh well... Cyclone1(02:06 UTC -27/08/2007) 94L.INVEST AoI: Wave coming of Africa Again. This one actually looks a bit like Pre-Dean. It has a 1003 low associated with it, so it already has one foot out the door. Then again, it could just go poof like the last one. Shear is 20-30 knots off the coast, so it'll probably have to wait until the Central Atlantic to really develop. Cainer91 01:50, 26 August 2007 (UTC) :It'll be slow to form. Cyclone1(16:55 UTC -26/08/2007) ::I don't see squat out there, just a few showers. If it's developing, it'll be in the Pacific. -- SkyFury 00:45, 27 August 2007 (UTC) :Well, according to the 10:30 TWO, some slow development is possible. It lost it's low pressure center since it came off Africa, though, so it'll have to work to develop. Here's a picture of it right now http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg. Cainer91 18:11, 27 August 2007 (UTC) 94L.INVEST FRESH FROM THE NAVY SITE... http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi, I'm giving it a 30% chance in developing into Felix RoswellAtup 10:05 28 August 2007 (UTC) :Eh, I think this one will go the way of 99L. There's just too much dry air for it to develop. If it can start building convection it may have a chance, but right now it's not looking so good. Cainer91 17:49, 28 August 2007 (UTC) ::Doesn't look great on GOES. The models seem mixed on this, but only two really make something out of it (CMC and HWRF). I would say this is not Felix (or TD 6). IP 19:32, 28 August 2007 (UTC) :::NHC says conditons appear favorable for "some development" over the next few days. -- SkyFury 20:37, 28 August 2007 (UTC) ::::It needs to gain convection before I starting betting ten bucks on a Felix. I've learned my lesson. That Caribbean blob looks better than 94L. (Cyclone1 logged out) 02:37, 29 August 2007 (UTC) Looks like random convection to me :|. IP 23:09, 29 August 2007 (UTC) :Recent update says it could make depression by Saturday. I don't get it, but the NHC really, REALLY likes this little guy. IP 17:04, 30 August 2007 (UTC) ::W-underground says a SHIPS run ended in a 98 knot storm at 120 hours. IP 17:51, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :::Recon flying tomorrow. Cyclone1(21:34 UTC -30/08/2007) Looks like there's nothing between this and TD6, but we shouldn't speak so soon, should we? IP 21:51, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Look at it now! Once the convection moves over the center, it will be time. IP 23:20, 30 August 2007 (UTC) ::This thing also looks good. There are certainly a lot of stirrings out in the Atlantic. It's been a while since I've seen the TWO this long. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:27, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :::Grr... You stole MY point! ''I was going to say that. Hmph. :::Seriously though, three depression-like storms, two quite possibly become depressions soon? I think we can welcome in September, folks. IP 23:51, 30 August 2007 (UTC) ::::(LOL!)...Tis the season. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:04, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::::... To be wary. ; ) IP 00:15, 31 August 2007 (UTC) 93L.INVEST http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html Gulf of Mexico. Looks like it could very well spin up into something before landfall, but I'm NOT betting on ANYTHING, ANYMORE. 'Cyclone1(16:55 UTC -26/08/2007) :Window closing. It has less than 12 hours to develop. ''Cyclone1(22:07 UTC -26/08/2007) ::Needs more water. It's outta time. -- SkyFury 00:47, 27 August 2007 (UTC) 95L.INVEST Good chance of developing... RoswellAtup 02:12 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Not in the short term, sheer is high, but forcast to weaken. It's drifting south, maybe it'll form sometime on Friday. 'Cyclone1(22:23 UTC -29/08/2007) ::Just for archiving purposes, this is the low off the southeast coast. Cyclone1(22:36 UTC -29/08/2007) :::That looks kinda decent actually. Don't you think it's wierd that we've had only ONE hurricane so far? I think this season might be a bust (watch as 94 and 95 develop into hurricanes tomorrow as a direct result of my pessimism!). IP 23:12, 29 August 2007 (UTC) ::::A couple models develop this, though I question their accuracy. IP 23:29, 29 August 2007 (UTC) GFDL as a hurricane off to no-where, Alex style. IP 11:14, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Mmm.... Interesting... Anyone know what that thing to the northeast of it is? IP 11:18, 30 August 2007 (UTC) ::CMC goes Dean-like, cat-4 in open ocean :0 IP 11:20, 30 August 2007 (UTC) Weakening, says the NHC. IP 13:18, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Dissipated. IP 16:56, 30 August 2007 (UTC) AoI: Central Caribbean Made the TWO and it said some slow development could occur. The upper level environment doesn't suck, but it's not ideal either. I find it more interesting, however, than the thing/nothing off Africa. If there's anything to watch out there, it's this. It has a well defined spin to the clouds but no LLCC, says NHC. Convection is also minimal. -- SkyFury 00:45, 27 August 2007 (UTC) :Could flare up tonight, we may have an actual player on our hands. Or a 94L that last for 12 hours like the last two INVESTS. Who knows? Cyclone1(02:01 UTC -27/08/2007) ::NHC seems less enthusiastic about it now. -- SkyFury 16:35, 27 August 2007 (UTC) :::Major super crazy convection flare! Looks like it will be 95L soon. (Cyclone1 logged out) 01:23, 29 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Meh, nevermind. Cyclone1(22:16 UTC -29/08/2007) "Major super crazy convection flare!" I will treasure that one :P. Anyway, I have no idea what you're talking about, could someone point it out to me?. IP 23:40, 29 August 2007 (UTC) :Haha, yeah I have my moments. I followed that with "Meh, nevermind" (which is another phrase I use a lot when my predictions don't come to fruition) because the convection moved inland. I'll probably say that at least 10 more times before the season ends. :P Cyclone1(21:44 UTC -30/08/2007) 96L.INVEST & 97L.INVEST prior to NHC confirmation Up on the NRL, and they actually look pretty good. Theres the thing near 95L and then the thing in the Bay of Champeche. Neither one is up at INVEST level on NHC, but they both (I believe) made the TWO. IP 11:57, 30 August 2007 (UTC) 96L.INVEST Up on NHC, and it looks really good. IP 13:17, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Wow, the NRL is going INVEST crazy! It looks pretty nice, but also looks like it's slowly missing its chance to develop. Cyclone1(20:43 UTC -30/08/2007) ::GFDL still makes it a hurricane, and SHIPS puts it at 57 knots. I'm not so sure. I give it a 40% chance (down from 60 earlier) IP 21:53, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :::Wow. It already has a very nice circulation, all it needs is deeper convection. That could happen tonight. Cyclone1(22:17 UTC -30/08/2007) It also could not happen tonight. I think, though, that it will form tomorrow night to the day after (perhaps sooner) and I give it a 70% chance of doing so. 40% chance before that. To clarify. That 40% is not for overall formation. IP 22:23, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :A valid point. However, it looks like it better happen soon. It's window is slowly closing. Cyclone1(22:37 UTC -30/08/2007) ::Hmmm... You might be right about formation tonight. It looks better than it did a half hour ago. IP 23:11, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :::This thing really looks like it has an LLCC. Sure looks like a tropical depression to me. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:26, 30 August 2007 (UTC) Hey Cyclone1, do you think you might have your "TD 5 and 6" situation happen here in real life? It's a real possibility at this point. IP 23:35, 30 August 2007 (UTC) 97L.INVEST I don't think it has enough water, but it does look pretty nice. IP 13:17, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Looking fair, I can see a possible depression out of this, maybe a 30% chance. 'Cyclone1(21:23 UTC -30/08/2007) ::I haven't seen it since 3:30, but it did look good. I give it slightly less, 20%. IP 21:54, 30 August 2007 (UTC) AOI? YUCATAN PENINSULA What the heck is that?! IP 23:57, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Umm, nothing that I see. I see 95L in the Bay of Campeche and some debris it left behind, but nothing to get excited about. What's this about? -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury''']] 00:13, 31 August 2007 (UTC) ::I dunno... I saw something, I'm sure of that, but it's not there anymore... IP 00:23, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::It must've been that I saw it somewhere else... BTW, it's 97L. Whatever it was that I saw, it's nothing. IP 00:25, 31 August 2007 (UTC) INVEST reports Is there someplace where there is some text on the INVEST reports? The NRL site doesn't seem to carry text, until it reaches at least tropical depression status. 4.154.5.226 06:01, 3 July 2007 (UTC) :Not as far as I know. Bob rulz 17:26, 16 August 2007 (UTC) Interesting models I don't know if this is important, but I found a very interesting Fujiwhara interaction on an eight day old CMC forecast. Link 68-100-190-56 16:25, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :Edit - If anyone finds any really interesting models, it could be interesting to group them here. Here's one of four cyclones forming (again from CMC): Link 68-100-190-56 16:29, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::Gotta love the CMC. Bob rulz 17:19, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :::The most recent one turns Dean into a cat 5. 68-100-190-56 18:05, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::::I wouldn't rule that out. Bob rulz 18:29, 16 August 2007 (UTC) I would trust the CMC on that count at this point. 68-100-190-56 21:05, 16 August 2007 (UTC) Hmm... Sorry for the extra header, but we have plenty of them don't we? Anyway, there seems to be a (somewhat) consensus on the models that go out that far that in a few days, after this wave of Africa, we will have something tropical in nature. Check out the GFS and you'll see what I mean. Any ideas? IP 23:38, 29 August 2007 (UTC) Model predictions I remember last year seeing links to plots of model projections (on Wikipedia of course) for all invests. I can not seem to find the link, does anyone know what I'm talking about? -Runningonbrains 17:34, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Hmm... No, I don't remember that. What kind of format were they in? IP 18:16, 30 August 2007 (UTC) Model sites Could some of you provide the model sites you use? It would be very helpful to quite a lot of us. Thanks, IP 23:34, 30 August 2007 (UTC)